The forgotten lesson of 1991
The authors of the article, Aleksander Kolednik, Aleš Žužek and Mihael Šuštaršič, state that the fear of Russia's moves in Europe is growing, which raises the question of the state of the Slovenian Armed Forces and how prepared it is for a possible escalation of armed conflict in Europe.
State Secretary at the Ministry of Defence, Dr Damir Črnčec, told Siol.net that only a few years ago we thought that a large-scale conventional war on the borders of the European Union was not possible. "The bitter realisation that we all experienced with Russia's aggression against Ukraine triggered tectonic changes, in the first phase mainly in the thinking within defence and academic structures in EU and NATO member states," explains Dr Črnčec. Črnčec adds that "in addition, there was the realisation that no one in Europe is prepared for a war like the one that is taking place today as a result of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, not from a military point of view, nor from the other social aspects that are important in order to be able to deal with war successfully." He pointed to the empty arms and ammunition depots across Europe and the availability of capacity in the European defence industry. "This is where the whole of Europe (including the European NATO members) has realised that we are far, far behind and that we are very much asleep," said Dr Črnčec.
Asked why the Slovenian Territorial Defence and police forces managed to defeat the JNA, then the eighth most powerful army in the world, in 1991, Dr Damir Črnčec replies that we had a concept of general popular resistance and social self-defence, developed after the Soviet Union attacked Czechoslovakia in 1968. "We successfully faced the Yugoslav army, despite the embargo at the time, because we had small nuclei of territorial defence and a system of mobilisation of forces throughout Slovenia. We also had a sufficient variety of weapons, and this, with a broad national consensus expressed in the plebiscite, enabled us to stand together against the aggressor."
Following Slovenia's entry into NATO and the abandonment of conscription, Dr. Črnčec points out that these concepts were forgotten as the country transitioned towards a professional army with a contract reserve, lacking depth reserves. "Of course, everyone, including the Slovenian Armed Forces, is now concerned with how to ensure that we increase our own capabilities. Today, Slovenia has a strong professional core. I dare to say that the modernisation process we are implementing in the Slovenian Armed Forces is heading in the right direction to meet the challenges of today. What we all have to do together is to develop concepts to increase the strength of the Slovenian Armed Forces, if necessary," Dr Črnčec explained.
Asked about the possible reintroduction of some form of compulsory military training, Dr Damir Črnčec replied that the Ministry has several proposals in the pipeline. "Today, it may be premature to talk about conscription, especially of the type it used to be. But we will definitely initiate a discussion on manning rather than recruitment in the Ministry, in the framework of the planned public debate on the defence strategy in about a month." Dr Črnčec asserts that the professional core of the Slovenian Armed Forces (SAF), comprising more than 7,000 members in conjunction with the contractual reserve, serves as the foundation for elevating the SAF to the 1991 level within a specified timeframe, utilizing strategic reserve manoeuvres
Dr Črnčec highlights 4x4 Light Wheeled Armoured Vehicles (LKOVs), air defence systems, and anti-tank assets as the crucial weapon systems required for protecting Slovenia's territory and contributing to the NATO burden-sharing concept. 'As we work towards fortifying the Slovenian Armed Forces, we believe in the importance of them being light, mobile, and agile, equipped with modern anti-armour and anti-aircraft assets. This configuration presents the strongest deterrent posture against anyone contemplating entry into Slovenian territory,' he explains.
Dr Črnčec also points out that the current government is the first to have military spending above 1.3% of GDP and defence spending on key investments above 20%. "We have shown that we are serious about modernisation. It starts with investment in people on the one hand and in military capabilities and concrete systems on the other. However, the introduction of new systems, such as LKOV 4x4, helicopters, aircraft and last but not least the Iris anti-aircraft system, is a process that takes several years," Dr Damir Črnčec points out. The basic prerequisite was to obtain funding and, for example, to increase the number of Spike anti-tank missiles by five times, thus significantly strengthening the SAF's anti-tank component. The State Secretary also highlighted the Spartan aircraft and new military helicopters, which will also be useful in the field of protection and rescue, as important acquisitions.