The Commission publishes European Semester Spring Package with recommendations and findings
The European Semester is a harmonisation process of the economic policies within the EU. The Package includes country reports, country-specific recommendations (CSRs) for priority actions to be taken by Member States in 2024 and 2025, a Commission assessment report of Member States' compliance with the deficit criterion, and the Communication on the classification of countries under the macroeconomic imbalance procedure based on the results of in-depth reviews.
Slovenia is not among the countries for which the Commission has initiated excessive deficit procedures. The final deficit sum in 2024 is uncertain; moreover, the projected deficit for the following year will be lower than three percent of GDP.
The main uncertainty regarding the size of the general government deficit in 2024 arises from measures aimed at repairing damage from last year's floods. The Commission approved these as temporary last year. Slovenia will reassess the amount of expenditures needed for these purposes later this year during the preparation of the medium-term fiscal and structural framework, when more information on the progress of flood recovery is available. Importantly, the Commission's review indicates that Slovenia has consistently reduced its deficit and debt-to-GDP ratios in recent years, with forecasts for the next two years reinforcing this trend.
Slovenia is also not among the countries undergoing the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, as the Commission has assessed that there are no significant deviations or emerging trends of new imbalances in most indicators.
Slovenia's 2024 Country Report provides a detailed analysis of economic and social developments, the challenges we face, and an assessment of the extent to which these challenges are being addressed by national policies. The report also reviews the implementation of specific recommendations for individual countries from previous Semester cycles.
For Slovenia, the Commission notes that the country's GDP growth is above the EU average, despite the adverse effects of the disastrous floods. The labour market is facing a shortage, partly due to demographic trends in Slovenia. The report notes slow overall productivity growth but highlights that Slovenia's industrial productivity has grown faster than in other EU countries and is above the EU average. Slovenia ranks among the top EU Member States for most European Pillar of Social Rights indicators. The Commission has also noted some progress in environmental and energy policies, as reflected by the indicators for Sustainable Development Goals.
The challenges that Slovenia needs to address in the next two years are outlined in the specific recommendations for Slovenia for 2024. In terms of public finances, the Commission recommends Slovenia to limit the growth of net expenditure in 2025 in line with the revised EU fiscal rules and to ensure the sustainability of the social security systems. Tax revenues in Slovenia should be restructured to support growth. Slovenia should improve the efficiency of public spending through expenditure reviews and better management of public investments. The second recommendation includes proposals for the implementation of recovery and resilience plans alongside the implementation of cohesion policy programmes, as well as considerations for initiatives to improve competitiveness within the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform. The Commission therefore recommends that Slovenia should strengthen its administrative capacity to manage EU funds, accelerate investment and maintain the momentum in the implementations of reforms. Under the third recommendation, Slovenia is encouraged to enhance competitiveness by further improving skill levels, addressing labour shortages, promoting business dynamism and the establishment of high-growth companies.